To make the reflection that many of the things which appear certain to us are probably false, and that there is not one which may not be among the errors, is very sensible. But to make believe one does not believe anything is an idle and self-deceptive pretence. Of the things which seem to us clearly true, probably the majority are approximations to the truth. We never can attain absolute certainty; but such clearness and evidence as a truth can acquire will consist in its appearing to form an integral unbroken part of the great body of truth. If we could reduce ourselves to a single belief, or to only two or three, those few would not appear reasonable or clear.
Peirce, CP 4.71 (1893)
Much of our consensus may be confabulated, embodied in fables which, like our intentions, are sustainable insofar as they are not in open conflict with the truth. But until we reach the end of experience, the evidence isn’t all in. We can never be sure that the cognitive bubble will never pop. We can however be sure that it will always be complex.
Every attempt to simplify the bubble is likely to lead to greater complexity. When a new guess (hypothesis) appears, we’re better off knowing that it’s false than relying on it as provisionally true (which is the nearest we can get to knowing that it’s true). The scientist therefore is eager to pop any bubble that can be popped, especially one we are partial to.
A hypothesis is something which looks as if it might be true and were true, and which is capable of verification or refutation by comparison with facts. The best hypothesis, in the sense of the one most recommending itself to the inquirer, is the one which can be the most readily refuted if it is false. This far outweighs the trifling merit of being likely. For after all, what is a likely hypothesis? It is one which falls in with our preconceived ideas. But these may be wrong. Their errors are just what the scientific man is out gunning for more particularly. But if a hypothesis can quickly and easily be cleared away so as to go toward leaving the field free for the main struggle, this is an immense advantage.
Peirce, CP 1.120